The Control of Dynamical Systems - Recovering Order from Chaos -

Following a brief historical introduction of the notions of chaos in dynamical systems, we will present recent developments that attempt to profit from the rich structure and complexity of the chaotic dynamics. In particular, we will demonstrate the ability to control chaos in realistic complex environments. Several applications will serve to illustrate the theory and to highlight its advantages and weaknesses. The presentation will end with a survey of possible generalizations and extensions of the basic formalism as well as a discussion of applications outside the field of the physical sciences. Future research avenues in this rapidly growing field will also be addressed.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures. Invited Talk at the XXIth International Conference on the Physics of Electronic and Atomic Collisions (ICPEAC), July 22-27, 1999 (Sendai, Japan

Time Evolution of Disease Spread on Networks with Degree Heterogeneity

Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease transmission; and the evolution of this pattern over time. Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches to incorporate these elements. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease spread at the expense of simplifying the pattern of transmission. On the other hand, the second approach uses network theory to incorporate detailed information pertaining to the underlying contact structure among individuals. However, while providing accurate estimates on the final size of outbreaks/epidemics, this approach, in its current formalism, disregards the progression of time during outbreaks. So far, the only alternative that enables the integration of both aspects of disease spread simultaneously has been to abandon the analytical approach and rely on computer simulations. We offer a new analytical framework based on percolation theory, which incorporates both the complexity of contact network structure and the time progression of disease spread. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this framework is equally effective on finite- and "infinite"-size networks. Application of this formalism is not limited to disease spread; it can be equally applied to similar percolation phenomena on networks in other areas in science and technology.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

Protein tyrosine phosphatases in glioma biology

Gliomas are a diverse group of brain tumors of glial origin. Most are characterized by diffuse infiltrative growth in the surrounding brain. In combination with their refractive nature to chemotherapy this makes it almost impossible to cure patients using combinations of conventional therapeutic strategies. The drastically increased knowledge about the molecular underpinnings of gliomas during the last decade has elicited high expectations for a more rational and effective therapy for these tumors. Most studies on the molecular pathways involved in glioma biology thus far had a strong focus on growth factor receptor protein tyrosine kinase (PTK) and phosphatidylinositol phosphatase signaling pathways. Except for the tumor suppressor PTEN, much less attention has been paid to the PTK counterparts, the protein tyrosine phosphatase (PTP) superfamily, in gliomas. PTPs are instrumental in the reversible phosphorylation of tyrosine residues and have emerged as important regulators of signaling pathways that are linked to various developmental and disease-related processes. Here, we provide an overview of the current knowledge on PTP involvement in gliomagenesis. So far, the data point to the potential implication of receptor-type (RPTPδ, DEP1, RPTPμ, RPTPζ) and intracellular (PTP1B, TCPTP, SHP2, PTPN13) classical PTPs, dual-specific PTPs (MKP-1, VHP, PRL-3, KAP, PTEN) and the CDC25B and CDC25C PTPs in glioma biology. Like PTKs, these PTPs may represent promising targets for the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic strategies in the treatment of high-grade gliomas

Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS: Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with coronary artery disease and 120,770 controls who did not have coronary artery disease. Through DNA sequencing, we studied the effects of loss-of-function mutations in selected genes. RESULTS: We confirmed previously observed significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes LPA and PCSK9. We also found significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes SVEP1 (p.D2702G; minor-allele frequency, 3.60%; odds ratio for disease, 1.14; P=4.2×10(-10)) and ANGPTL4 (p.E40K; minor-allele frequency, 2.01%; odds ratio, 0.86; P=4.0×10(-8)), which encodes angiopoietin-like 4. Through sequencing of ANGPTL4, we identified 9 carriers of loss-of-function mutations among 6924 patients with myocardial infarction, as compared with 19 carriers among 6834 controls (odds ratio, 0.47; P=0.04); carriers of ANGPTL4 loss-of-function alleles had triglyceride levels that were 35% lower than the levels among persons who did not carry a loss-of-function allele (P=0.003). ANGPTL4 inhibits lipoprotein lipase; we therefore searched for mutations in LPL and identified a loss-of-function variant that was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (p.D36N; minor-allele frequency, 1.9%; odds ratio, 1.13; P=2.0×10(-4)) and a gain-of-function variant that was associated with protection from coronary artery disease (p.S447*; minor-allele frequency, 9.9%; odds ratio, 0.94; P=2.5×10(-7)). CONCLUSIONS: We found that carriers of loss-of-function mutations in ANGPTL4 had triglyceride levels that were lower than those among noncarriers; these mutations were also associated with protection from coronary artery disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).Supported by a career development award from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health (NIH) (K08HL114642 to Dr. Stitziel) and by the Foundation for Barnes–Jewish Hospital. Dr. Peloso is supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH (award number K01HL125751). Dr. Kathiresan is supported by a Research Scholar award from the Massachusetts General Hospital, the Donovan Family Foundation, grants from the NIH (R01HL107816 and R01HL127564), a grant from Fondation Leducq, and an investigator-initiated grant from Merck. Dr. Merlini was supported by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (RFPS-2007-3-644382). Drs. Ardissino and Marziliano were supported by Regione Emilia Romagna Area 1 Grants. Drs. Farrall and Watkins acknowledge the support of the Wellcome Trust core award (090532/Z/09/Z), the British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre of Research Excellence. Dr. Schick is supported in part by a grant from the National Cancer Institute (R25CA094880). Dr. Goel acknowledges EU FP7 & Wellcome Trust Institutional strategic support fund. Dr. Deloukas’s work forms part of the research themes contributing to the translational research portfolio of Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, which is supported and funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Drs. Webb and Samani are funded by the British Heart Foundation, and Dr. Samani is an NIHR Senior Investigator. Dr. Masca was supported by the NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit (BRU), and this work forms part of the portfolio of research supported by the BRU. Dr. Won was supported by a postdoctoral award from the American Heart Association (15POST23280019). Dr. McCarthy is a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator (098381) and an NIHR Senior Investigator. Dr. Danesh is a British Heart Foundation Professor, European Research Council Senior Investigator, and NIHR Senior Investigator. Drs. Erdmann, Webb, Samani, and Schunkert are supported by the FP7 European Union project CVgenes@ target (261123) and the Fondation Leducq (CADgenomics, 12CVD02). Drs. Erdmann and Schunkert are also supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research e:Med program (e:AtheroSysMed and sysINFLAME), and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft cluster of excellence “Inflammation at Interfaces” and SFB 1123. Dr. Kessler received a DZHK Rotation Grant. The analysis was funded, in part, by a Programme Grant from the BHF (RG/14/5/30893 to Dr. Deloukas). Additional funding is listed in the Supplementary Appendix.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Massachusetts Medical Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa150765

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Predicting Protests by Disadvantaged Skilled Immigrants: A Test of an Integrated Social Identity, Relative Deprivation, Collective Efficacy (SIRDE) Model

In Canada, skilled immigrants with foreign credentials tend to experience difficulty in obtaining a suitable job in their chosen profession. This is because employers do not recognize the full value of such qualifications. We used structural equation modeling to test a social identity, relative deprivation, collective efficacy model in a prospective study of a sample of skilled immigrants (N = 234) disadvantaged by this “credentialing” problem. In this model, variables measured at time 1 successfully predicted participation in protest actions during the following 4 months, measured at time 2. First, we conceptualized the affective component of collective relative deprivation (CRD) as (i) the perception of discrimination by the majority group and (ii) the emotional reaction of anger, resentment and frustration in response to that discrimination. The results suggested that the latter positively influenced participation in protest actions but, unexpectedly, the former had the opposite effect. Second, the evidence suggested that respondents’ identification with Canada, but not their cultural group, indirectly influenced such participation through collective efficacy and the two components of affective CRD. Third, the novel hypothesis that status insecurity mediates the relationship between cognitive CRD and the two components of affective CRD was supported. Finally, the results suggest that collective efficacy was a strong and direct determinant of participation in protest actions. The implications of these results for the development of an integrated social psychological theory that can predict participation in political protests are discussed

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions